Seasonal Variation in Admissions of Bacterial Meningitis at a Tertiary Care Hospital: A Time Series Study using Wavelet Analysis

Mahesh D Kurugodiyavar, Dattatraya D Bant, D Raghavendra, Laxmikant Lokare, Maneesha, Godbole, Manjunath S Nekar, S Kantesh

Abstract


Background: Bacterial meningitis is one of the most feared infectious diseases, being an important cause of death and long-term neurological disability. Various studies have observed seasonality of occurrence of bacterial meningitis most commonly in dry and cold seasons. Studies of seasonal variation contribute to understanding the etiology of infections, health-care planning for prevention, and rational use of hospital resources. Objectives: The objectives of the study were to know the seasonal variations and trend in the admissions of community-acquired acute bacterial meningitis in Karnataka Institute of Medical Sciences (KIMS) Hospital. Methods: A time series analysis by compiling monthly data of bacterial meningitis cases admitted in KIMS, Hubli, from the reports of medical records department for a period of 5 years from January 2014 to December 2018. Results: The peaks for hospitalizations were predominantly in March–May and even the seasonality for aggregate years occurs as peak effect in summer. Hospitalizations for bacterial meningitis showed a periodicity of 3–4 months in each year along with cyclical trend over the years studied. Conclusion: This study found evidence of seasonality for bacterial meningitis, thereby suggesting that hospitals should be prepared for providing clinical services round the year; however, more resources may be required during the peak months of March–May.

Key words: Bacterial meningitis, seasonal variation, tertiary care hospital, time series analysis, wavelet transform


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